A Refresher On Hurricanes, And Hope You Aren't In Florida

OK, first a refresher on how hurricanes form:

Hot air from northern Africa is swept out over the Atlantic Ocean by the easterly (they blow from the east) trade winds.  It sucks up warm (typically over 85 F) ocean water.  The water is carried upwards until it condenses in the upper atmosphere and releases the energy that it used to evaporate in the first place.  The released energy warms the air and it rises more, pulling up more water, which condenses and releases energy, which warms the air ....

From UCAR - https://eo.ucar.edu/kids/dangerwx/hurricane3.htm

 Then the trade winds push the storm westward.  Remember that warmer, moister air is less dense than cooler or drier air so the storm floats, bobbling along like a giant balloon.

In an El Niño year, which this is NOT, the easterlies fade and the storm is more likely to float around in the Atlantic until it gets far enough north to run out of hot ocean water. 

This year, not only is there no El Niño, but the ocean waters are extremely warm.  That is why right now there are 3 active hurricanes in the Atlantic (very unusual) and they are heading towards land in North America.

From Weather Underground, https://www.wunderground.com

Predicting the path of hurricanes is not easy.  Being giant (very destructive) balloons, they will bounce off other storms, cold fronts, or any other air masses that are denser.  Eventually most hurricanes move far enough north to get caught by the prevailing westerly winds that blow across most of the US and then reach the North Atlantic where the water is too cold to sustain the winds.

 

From Weather Underground, https://www.wunderground.com

The latest predictions for Irma, which have not changed much over the last 24 hours, are that it will hit the Florida keys very early Sunday morning and then move right up the center of Florida to Atlanta, Georgia.  It will then hit air currents that will sweep it to the west before the westerlies bring it back over Atlanta.  There is a good chance that it will then continue northeast, passing over Delaware before going out to sea.  Fortunately by the time it hits Atlanta for the first time it will have been away from the ocean long enough to have lost much of its warm water energy and will be only a tropical depression with lots of rain but winds of less than 40 mph.

Talk show host claims media
coverage of Hurricane Irma a
 conspiracy by the media, then
finds an excuse to leave Florida.
From Business Insider:
http://www.businessinsider.com