Wednesday, March 4, 2015

Fall Down, Go Boom!



Last night it snowed, then the snow turned to sleet and the sleet turned to rain.

This morning all of the schools in my prediction area had a late opening – except for Avon and WeHa.  There comes a time when getting in the school days becomes more important than a few flooded roads. 
Won't it be fun when this freezes solid tonight!

Tonight the temperature will drop below freezing and it will snow again. 

[There won’t be much snow so I am saying that most schools will have a normal day tomorrow.] 


Sorry – light snow will continue into the day tomorrow, and some schools might open late.  I’ll bet a nickel that WeHa starts on time…




However!  Everything is soggy today and will freeze into a solid block of ice tonight.  I hope you have more sand and snow for your driveways and sidewalks, and be careful on the ice.  Because the odds of you falling down and going boom are pretty high.

Tuesday, March 3, 2015

Tuesday Night Update

This is a really difficult one to call.  The snow will be changing over to sleet and freezing rain tonight and then ending around 1 am.

I am trying to balance the administration's desire to get the school year over before June 30, the ending of the storm long before dawn, the fact that the roads, driveways, and school buses will be covered with ice, and the temperature will be close to freezing until noon.

I am going to risk my reputation as a Weather Guesser by going out on a limb and saying that there will be a late school opening in Connecticut on Wednesday.

Even if I am wrong, you will have to get out early and remove ice from your cars and driveways.

As for Thursday ....  late?  closed?  Stay tuned.



Massive Collision in Connecticut - Thousands Inconvenienced


A typical New England air collision

The collision is a common one in Connecticut;  Freezing air from Canada meets warm, wet air from the Gulf of Mexico.   

Tuesday afternoon there will be snow.  Expect that some after-school and evening events will be canceled.

There is one more chance to clear snow off buildings, as tonight’s rain will be the final straw for overburdened roofs.

The snow will change to ice and freezing rain Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.  As of Tuesday morning it looks like it will be all rain by sunrise on Wednesday, but ice and road flooding produce about a 50-50 chance of a late school opening Wednesday.  No matter what, traveling to work on Wednesday will be a mess.  Be prepared and allow extra time.

The rain will change back to freezing rain, sleet, and snow Wednesday night and into Thursday morning.  It is still too early for exact timing, but the water on the roads and sidewalks will have frozen solid overnight.  I will update this later, but right now I see a chance of school closings.


Monday, March 2, 2015

Nasty Weather Alert!

For those of you who are anxious for good news, it is getting warmer.
If you can handle the bad news, it is getting warmer.

The computer models have not come into agreement yet, so why not enjoy a prediction of the worst case scenario, à la TV Weather Fear-Mongering:


Tuesday evening activities will be cancelled as it starts to snow again.

The snow will change to rain Tuesday night, but with the ground covered with snow there will be ice, road flooding, and collapsing roofs.

Wednesday will have a late start to schools, although if the icing is bad enough for power outages they will cancel.

Wednesday night there will be more snow and dropping temperatures.  Expect a late opening, possibly another day off from classes on Thursday as the whole world turns to a solid block of ice.

Fun, yes?

On a more realistic note, I strongly suggest removing any heavy snow load from your roof Monday and Tuesday, before the wet snow and rain show up.

I will update this on Tuesday with a more accurate prediction of late openings and closings on Wednesday and Thursday.


Teachers, plan an extra early start both days to shovel out.

Sunday, March 1, 2015

Which Spring? And A Difficult Call For School Delays



Lesson first, then my school closing prediction:

This morning I opened my eyes to the sound of the Weather Guesser on the radio announcing the first day of Meteorological Spring. 

That opened my eyes wide, because I am not used to hearing a broadcast Weather Guesser being factually correct.  They usually go with the incorrect “spring starts on March 21 (the equinox)” and “summer starts on June 21 (the solstice).” 

There are actually three common ways of organizing the seasons.  The one that has been popularized on the media is the astronomical organization.  Because different stars are visible at different times of the year, astronomers do divide the seasons by astronomical events – the solstices and equinoxes.  But unless you spend your nights studying the cosmos this system really doesn’t match up with real life. 

To meteorologists today really is the first day of spring.  Meteorologists divide the year by temperature:  The three coldest months (December, January, February) represent winter and the three warmest months (June, July, August) are a meteorologist’s summer.  This does make sense in a way that we can understand.  Cold is winter in the northern hemisphere and summer is hot. 

To people more in touch with nature than most Americans are these days, the
seasons were based on everyday observations.  Daylight increases until it affects plants and animals (maple sap has been running for a while and going outside now exposes our ears to hundreds of bird-language equivalents of “hey baby, lets mate!,” skunks and woodchucks have bred, and lambs are growing in the bellies of their mothers.  Under the snow bulbs are starting to push upwards. Really.)  Nature is waking up and we called this spring.

When the daylight decreases and plants start to shut down for the year, it is autumn. 

When the last leaves have fallen and the gardens are dead, it is winter.

The dates in the northern hemisphere that match these natural occurrences come approximately halfway between the astronomical events.  Remember that Shakespeare wrote a play about the longest day of the year (the solstice) and named it “MID-Summer Night’s Dream”, not “First Day of Summer Night’s Dream”.

Halfway between the winter solstice and the spring equinox is Groundhog Day / Candlemas when nature starts to wake up.  The Biosphere’s spring.

Halfway between the spring equinox and the solstice is May Day / Beltane when flowers open (and people used to dance around phallic symbols and then go out into the fields to demonstrate to Mother Nature what she should be doing with their crops.)  This was seen as the first day of summer as nature started producing flowers and baby animals.

Halfway between the solstice and the autumn equinox the plants react to decreasing daylight by producing fruit and seeds and we celebrated Lammas (Loaf Mass) as we ate the first bread from the new wheat.  Autumn begins.

And halfway between the autumn equinox and the winter solstice comes All Hallow’s Eve, the celebration of the dead, as the harvest is over and nature
begins the winter sleep.

End of the lesson.  Now on to a difficult school closing prediction.  The snow storm has moved faster than originally expected.  Rather than reaching central Connecticut around mid afternoon, the first flakes started to fall around 10:00 am.  The storm will end earlier also.  By sunrise the storm will be gone and the cleanup will begin.

Could schools open on time?  Possibly.  But given the amount of snow already on the roads it might take a while to clear the new accumulation.  So, get up early anyway to shovel your way out, but I think there is a 65% chance of a delayed school opening on Monday, March 2.

As of right now, it looks like your commute to school on Wednesday will be wet and slushy, but on time.