Monday, March 2, 2015

Nasty Weather Alert!

For those of you who are anxious for good news, it is getting warmer.
If you can handle the bad news, it is getting warmer.

The computer models have not come into agreement yet, so why not enjoy a prediction of the worst case scenario, à la TV Weather Fear-Mongering:


Tuesday evening activities will be cancelled as it starts to snow again.

The snow will change to rain Tuesday night, but with the ground covered with snow there will be ice, road flooding, and collapsing roofs.

Wednesday will have a late start to schools, although if the icing is bad enough for power outages they will cancel.

Wednesday night there will be more snow and dropping temperatures.  Expect a late opening, possibly another day off from classes on Thursday as the whole world turns to a solid block of ice.

Fun, yes?

On a more realistic note, I strongly suggest removing any heavy snow load from your roof Monday and Tuesday, before the wet snow and rain show up.

I will update this on Tuesday with a more accurate prediction of late openings and closings on Wednesday and Thursday.


Teachers, plan an extra early start both days to shovel out.

Sunday, March 1, 2015

Which Spring? And A Difficult Call For School Delays



Lesson first, then my school closing prediction:

This morning I opened my eyes to the sound of the Weather Guesser on the radio announcing the first day of Meteorological Spring. 

That opened my eyes wide, because I am not used to hearing a broadcast Weather Guesser being factually correct.  They usually go with the incorrect “spring starts on March 21 (the equinox)” and “summer starts on June 21 (the solstice).” 

There are actually three common ways of organizing the seasons.  The one that has been popularized on the media is the astronomical organization.  Because different stars are visible at different times of the year, astronomers do divide the seasons by astronomical events – the solstices and equinoxes.  But unless you spend your nights studying the cosmos this system really doesn’t match up with real life. 

To meteorologists today really is the first day of spring.  Meteorologists divide the year by temperature:  The three coldest months (December, January, February) represent winter and the three warmest months (June, July, August) are a meteorologist’s summer.  This does make sense in a way that we can understand.  Cold is winter in the northern hemisphere and summer is hot. 

To people more in touch with nature than most Americans are these days, the
seasons were based on everyday observations.  Daylight increases until it affects plants and animals (maple sap has been running for a while and going outside now exposes our ears to hundreds of bird-language equivalents of “hey baby, lets mate!,” skunks and woodchucks have bred, and lambs are growing in the bellies of their mothers.  Under the snow bulbs are starting to push upwards. Really.)  Nature is waking up and we called this spring.

When the daylight decreases and plants start to shut down for the year, it is autumn. 

When the last leaves have fallen and the gardens are dead, it is winter.

The dates in the northern hemisphere that match these natural occurrences come approximately halfway between the astronomical events.  Remember that Shakespeare wrote a play about the longest day of the year (the solstice) and named it “MID-Summer Night’s Dream”, not “First Day of Summer Night’s Dream”.

Halfway between the winter solstice and the spring equinox is Groundhog Day / Candlemas when nature starts to wake up.  The Biosphere’s spring.

Halfway between the spring equinox and the solstice is May Day / Beltane when flowers open (and people used to dance around phallic symbols and then go out into the fields to demonstrate to Mother Nature what she should be doing with their crops.)  This was seen as the first day of summer as nature started producing flowers and baby animals.

Halfway between the solstice and the autumn equinox the plants react to decreasing daylight by producing fruit and seeds and we celebrated Lammas (Loaf Mass) as we ate the first bread from the new wheat.  Autumn begins.

And halfway between the autumn equinox and the winter solstice comes All Hallow’s Eve, the celebration of the dead, as the harvest is over and nature
begins the winter sleep.

End of the lesson.  Now on to a difficult school closing prediction.  The snow storm has moved faster than originally expected.  Rather than reaching central Connecticut around mid afternoon, the first flakes started to fall around 10:00 am.  The storm will end earlier also.  By sunrise the storm will be gone and the cleanup will begin.

Could schools open on time?  Possibly.  But given the amount of snow already on the roads it might take a while to clear the new accumulation.  So, get up early anyway to shovel your way out, but I think there is a 65% chance of a delayed school opening on Monday, March 2.

As of right now, it looks like your commute to school on Wednesday will be wet and slushy, but on time.

Saturday, February 28, 2015

Update for Monday, March 2, 2015

This morning was noisy.  Male cardinals, male chickadees, and flocks of male juncos are all singing away in the trees and shrubs.

It was also cold.  That strengthening sunlight is melting the snow on the roofs and roads, but the air is still cold.


The weather predictions for central Connecticut have not changed much.  It looks like the snow will end by 6 am, leaving messy streets.  Expect a possible late opening and a messy drive in.

Wednesday, March 4 will be soaking wet, with flooded streets.  The snow is expected to change to rain around midnight, so I do not think that schools will be affected.

Thursday?  Still early, but it looks like that rain will freeze ....

Friday, February 27, 2015

Spring Snow Explaining Climate Change - More School Problems in Central CT



Just when we are starting to get really tired of snow, along comes Spring and the snow storms pick up.  More storms, more snow.  And then tornado season starts in the south.  Why?

The answer is heat.  The Sun shines longer each day, and is higher above the horizon.  The Earth heats up and it warms the air above it.   Warmer air (heat = energy), more movement.  The jet stream wobbles as cold and warm air masses move about.  The fiercest storms are often in the spring.

Compare that to climate change.  We add greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, it warms up.  Air masses start to move about faster and more erratically.  Dryer dries, wetter wets, warmer warms and colder colds.  (So that congressman who brought in a snowball as proof that the climate is not changing is just showing that he didn't pay attention in science class.)

What does this have to do with school days in central Connecticut?  There is a storm moving in Sunday night (March 1) after dark.  It won’t stop until about 8 am on Monday (March 2).  While it is still early, I am predicting at least a late opening.  Everyone wants to get out of school before June 30, so I’m guessing that if the roads are clear, schools will open.  As we get closer I will update this.

Then another snow storm arrives Tuesday night (March 3) and continues into Wednesday morning before changing to ice then rain.  Be prepared for another late opening.   And if that rain freezes Wednesday night, maybe another late opening on Thursday.  

Because we are getting warmer.

Thursday, February 19, 2015

School on Monday in Connecticut!

Hard to believe, but there will be school in Connecticut on Monday, February 23.

The weekend storm is moving faster than originally thought, and will be done by noon on Sunday.  That means that you will have Sunday afternoon to dig out after the rain and melt on Saturday night freezes on Sunday night.

Next chance for a snow day - Wednesday 2/25, the day that all teachers love for its long, long, long meetings.

Tuesday, February 17, 2015

Monday Schedules In Connecticut? Maybe This Time!

It is only Wednesday (2/18).  Monday (2/23) is days away.  Any weather predictions made now will change.


This was Toronto 2 years ago.  Will it be West Hartford next week?
The storm is moving faster than expected, but right now I don't know how to call Monday.  

It will (as of now) start to snow after dark on Saturday.  The temperature will go above freezing Sunday.  Think of rain on all of that snow.  Think of the roofs with all of that wet snow on it. Think of FREEZING rain on the trees and wires.

Then it will drop below freezing by early Monday.  And all of that wet snow will turn to frozen concrete.

At least the precipitation looks to be over by sunrise Monday.  If the drains are clear and the roads aren't flooded you will be able to get to school.

Monday, February 16, 2015

Late Opening Tuesday 2/17? Maybe

It all depends on where you are.  This storm is heading east and south of us, so closer to Rhode Island and Boston might have a late opening.  The northwest less likely.

Set your alarms, but listen for that text from the school.

Teachers, be prepared.  It will be a longer than usual drive to school tomorrow.