And... Gone. Maybe.

I have been very interested in Hurricane Joaquin for several reasons.

First of all, it is the most powerful (category 4) storm to approach North America in a long time. 

Secondly, it seemed to be heading straight towards me.

5 Day Prediction as of October 2

Predicting hurricanes is tough.  Unlike most weather, which follows (mostly) predictable patterns, hurricanes ride the winds, bouncing off high pressure (dense, dry air) systems and being sucked towards low pressure (less dense, moist air) systems.  And of course those high and low pressure systems keep moving.

There are about a dozen computer models that are used to predict the movement of hurricanes.  All but the European Model were consistently saying that the storm would move west and hit the New Jersey shore.  The European Model showed it moving out to sea.

The European Model has been the most accurate over the past few years, so i waited.  Sure enough, the other models have changed their predictions.  It now looks like Joaquin will be a miss for Connecticut.

As you were.