Sunday, December 15, 2013

Tuesday Early Dismissal? Chances Increasing.

It has been tough predicting snow days lately.
In the past, I combined what I knew about the weather with a guess as to how the school administration would react (emphasis on guess).

Now I have to add a third factor:  an increasing randomness in the weather patterns.

Saturday's unexpected two inches is an example.  No one really saw it coming until Friday night.

As the atmosphere heats up, the oceans heat up and the ice caps melt.  The result is a change in wind and water currents.  The old computer models have to change as well, and they aren't there yet.

However, I am going to go out on a limb with a forecast for Tuesday:  80% 90% chance of Early Dismissal in West Hartford.  

So, how about that weekend before Christmas?   Larger storms are easier to predict, and it looks like a rainy monster next weekend.  Sunday probably rain, changing to ice Sunday night.

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4 comments:

  1. Jalen LylesDecember 16, 2013 at 5:14 PM

    I hope it's a white Christmas this year. Really puts me in the holiday mood.

    ReplyDelete
  2. UnknownDecember 17, 2013 at 8:14 PM

    Any idea how the Mid-West is going to look around Christmas?

    ReplyDelete
  3. The Grumpy Old ScientistDecember 18, 2013 at 7:39 AM

    The Mid-West is a pretty large area, Byron, but unfortunately the same weather pattern that will affect us will be passing through much of the central US. There is plenty of snow there now, but it will be very warm over the weekend and it will be raining. With dry weather following, it looks like there will be less snow for Christmas than there is now. Sorry.

    ReplyDelete
  4. The Grumpy Old ScientistDecember 22, 2013 at 4:00 PM

    Byron, I wish you had told me which part of the mid-west you were heading to. If you are in Nebraska, enjoy the snow! If you are closer to the south and east, enjoy the rain!

    ReplyDelete

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